How can Arteta stop Fernandes and Rashford to end Arsenal's winless run at Old Trafford?

September 17 2006. It was not even halfway through Arsène Wenger’s 22-year reign in north London. It was one of Tomáš Rosicky’s first games in an Arsenal career that lasted a decade. It was in a tournament that was then known as the “Premiership”. It was before it was legally permissible to hand Theo Walcott a bottle of champagne when he was named man of the match.

It was the last time Arsenal won a league game at Old Trafford.

Having begun the Emirates era without a win in their opening three league games of the 2006/07 season, Wenger’s team took all three points against Manchester United when Emmanuel Adebayor struck five minutes from time. The visitors had a chance to snatch an equaliser seconds later, only for Jens Lehmann to deny them. Whose attempt? Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s. Given his love for nostalgia, there’s a fair chance that the "Baby-Faced Assassin" might actually remember that one.

Since then the Gunners have made 13 trips to the “Theatre of Dreams” and come away with just five points. Their greatest nightmare, of course, was the memorable 8-2 defeat in August 2011 that led to a raft of signings including one Mikel Arteta. Coincidentally, upon returning to the club as a manager his first victory came against Solskjaer’s side in January.

In fact, that wasn’t too much of a surprise. Arsenal have actually won four of their last five home games against the Red Devils in the Premier League. But it’s different at Old Trafford. It just is. How can Arteta end this winless run when he leads his charges there on Sunday?

How to defend

Let’s start with how the hosts could line up. In recent games against direct rivals, Solskjaer has opted for a back five. This was seen most recently at PSG last week, where his team came away with a 2-1 win despite just 39% possession. A similar formation saw them beat neighbours Manchester City home and away in the Premier League last season, as well at Chelsea in February. However, the Norwegian has opted for a standard four-man defence in recent games against Tottenham and Chelsea, albeit without success. Would an extra defender (even if in name only) be necessary against an Arsenal side without a goal in their last two league games? It seems not. As such, the Gunners should expect to face a back four on Sunday.

For the large part of Mikel Arteta’s reign at the Emirates, the Spaniard has opted for an unorthodox 3-4-3/5-2-3. Against RB Leipzig, another side that play with the same formation (at least on paper), Solskjaer tweaked his recent 4-3-3 with a switch to a 4-3-1-2, sacrificing a forward for a further creative midfielder (in this instance Marcus Rashford for Paul Pogba). The Englishman instead came from the bench to score a hat trick in the 5-0 win and will naturally replace the suspended Anthony Martial on Sunday; as a result it would make sense to see Solskjaer stick to the same system. Doing so would give United clear advantage in the middle of the pitch.

It is therefore important that Arteta’s side do not make the same mistakes of which Leipzig were guilty on Wednesday. Although United did have to wait until the 74th minute for Rashford to double their lead, the German outfit’s high line as they sought a route back into the game did them no favours. All of the hosts’ first three goals game about through one of the centre forwards finding space behind the visitors’ defence (Fig. 1 & 2). Arsenal, stung by a similar approach from Leicester last Sunday, must be more wary seven days on.

Fig. 1: In the build up to United's first goal Paul Pogba (circled, left) is given time on the ball in his preferred position on the left channel. He is then able to slip the ball behind the centre backs for Mason Greenwood (circled, right) to finish. Image: BT Sport via Youtube.

Fig. 2: Rashford (circled, left) is still in his own half when the ball is played by Bruno Fernandes (circled, right). He has the simply tasking of running onto the ball and scoring his side's second. Image: BT Sport via Youtube.

The visitors will be without David Luiz, so Shkodran Mustafi will probably retain his place after the midweek win over Dundalk. He would rely on Hector Bellerin to help contain Rashford, although it is not in the Spaniard’s nature to stick to defensive duties.

In order to grant the right back license to attack, having five men line up in defence will be Arteta’s likely solution. Given that United’s 4-3-1-2 would allow more flexibility between the centre forwards, a further reason for defensive stability would be Greenwood’s ability to shoot with either foot. If, as usual, he takes up position on the inside-right channel, he can cause problems for Kieran Tierney as he could plausibly go inside or outside the Scot. If he cuts inside, Tierney will be forced onto his weaker right side in order to tackle and Gabriel must come across to cover, leaving Mustafi occupied by Rashford. This did not work well last time out, when the Brazilian was forced to leave Jamie Vardy as he attempted to close down Cengiz Ünder, only for Mustafi to leave the Foxes striker free to convert (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: Gabriel is tightly marking Vardy (circled, right) but when the ball is played through to Ünder (circled, centre) he goes across to challenge but nobody covers him. Vardy is left with a free header. Image: Sky Sports via Youtube.

This is not Arteta’s only worry, though. Like Greenwood, Fernandes was not part of the United line-up when these sides last met on January 1. How does one keep a player with 16 goals and 12 assists in just 30 appearances quiet? Can just one do it? Perhaps Thomas Partey or Granit Xhaka could be tasked with shadowing the Portuguese. It’s certainly tempting. After all, the probable pivot of Scott McTominay and Fred, which started against PSG and Chelsea last week, offer fine passes from deep but is less likely to create chances in the final third. The pair have a total of six assists in a combined 172 appearances for the club.

However, the only issue is that this United formation has room for Pogba too.

There is an alternative. Instead of covering the man, cover the space. Partey could aim to disrupt United’s left attacking channel, from which both of United’s chief creators prefer to operate. As shown by the touch maps from the victory over PSG and the lacklustre draw with Chelsea, United are less dangerous when Fernandes is forced to the right (Fig. 4 & 5).

Fig. 4: In the 2-1 win over PSG, Fernandes (playing left to right) saw plenty of the ball on both flanks. Stats via WhoScored.

Fig. 5: Four days later against Chelsea, the Portuguese (again playing left to right) had more touches of the ball on the right of the pitch. He took fewer shots, completed fewer dribbles and, crucially, United did not score. Stats via WhoScored.

That leaves the full backs. Summer signing Alex Telles will miss the match, meaning that Shaw is set to resume at the left of defence. Against Chelsea both he and fellow full back Aaron Wan-Bissaka were afforded plenty of possession but could not deliver any effective end product. This has been the story of their Old Trafford careers to date; the duo have registered just three goals and 15 assists between them in 199 appearances.

How to attack

Despite their awful record at Old Trafford, the good news for the Gunners is that they have not failed to find the net in any match against their old rivals since 2014 – 14 meetings ago.

The obvious issue with five at the back, however, is the sacrifice of a central midfielder. Once praised (and sometimes derided) for their plethora of creative and goal scoring talent, things have changed for Arsenal and last season saw their midfielders contribute just four league goals; half of those were scored by players who are now unavailable.

Whilst he wears the number 8 shirt, Dani Ceballos is not that player; indeed, he was not responsible for any of those four goals. While not as defensively inclined as many would assume, neither are Xhaka or Partey. Joe Willock is arguably the only player who fits this profile, but he is unlikely to start despite a man of the match performance against Dundalk. Furthermore, Luiz’s absence has robbed Arteta's team of another springboard in the form of the Brazilian’s raking through balls and strikes from distance.

In January’s win over Solskjaer’s side, Arsenal’s opener came after a low cross from the touchline (something increasingly common in recent years at the Emirates), while the second was the result of a set piece (far less typical). With the dearth of conventional central playmakers at Arteta’s disposal, these seem a likely source of scoring opportunities on Sunday.

So far this season Bellerin tops the club’s assist leaderboard with four in all competitions; ensuring that there is defensive insurance while he attacks will be key. Meanwhile, in 2019/20 it was Bukayo Saka who made the most goals for the Gunners (11). His versatility makes him an intriguing attacking option for a side that are becoming far too predictable. Where he actually plays is another matter. So far this season he has largely operated as a left wing-back, and against West Ham he created both of his sides goals with passes from the inside-left channel.

Arteta must find a way of getting Saka more involved, rather than hand him defensive duties. He made this move against Leicester, giving the England international the nod at right wing over Nicolas Pépé. However, the issue of no central creative sources remains.

Could he play as a number eight? Or a number ten? Or, as occurred in the latter stages of the win over Sheffield United in early October, could he and Willian constantly switch attacking positions? What about Pépé? He too has risked being seen as predictable but recent performances on the left wing against Liverpool in the EFL Cup and Dundalk (where he scored with a rare right-footed attempt) suggest we could see more from the club’s record signing in his second season.

Having the three rotate behind a centre forward would be ideal, but this is probably not the game for that as a back five leaves just one midfielder remaining. At least one of them has to go. The current system allows for the left-wing back to come inside and join the midfield (often Saka or Ainsley Maitland-Niles). This has largely worked due to these two players’ comfort in midfield, as well as Tierney’s experience as a conventional left back.

Deciding on the supporting players will be made easier once Arteta confirms his choice at centre forward. Alexandre Lacazette started the season with goals in each of the Gunners’ opening three league games but was guilty of wasting big chances against Leicester. Eddie Nketiah has been an alternative and has too has three goals to his name in all competitions this season. However, he was ineffective when handed a starting spot against Sheffield United, particularly against such physically dominant centre backs. Given that Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelöf hold a similar advantage, he is unlikely to get much joy if his side persist with creating chances from the wings.

Arteta has also hinted that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will move into the centre. The club captain has underwhelmed this term and is without a goal in his last five league outings. He has enjoyed great success coming in from the left flank to date but, like Pépé on the opposite side, his style is seemingly becoming predictable. His goal against Rapid Vienna last week showed the benefit of getting him into the box. At Old Trafford he would likely struggle against the defensively astute Wan-Bissaka on the left so using his pace to target the hosts’ centre backs could be an alternative.

Putting it all together: which formation is best for Arteta?

First of all: the obvious starters. Bellerin, Gabriel, Tierney, Partey and Aubameyang are all in. So too is Xhaka, despite having played 74 minutes on Thursday.

A back five when out of possession seems smart, although United’s toothless full backs mean that the visitors may be happy to cede possession on the wings. They must, however, plug space on the left as this is where United’s dangerous trio of Rashford, Pogba and Fernandes all want to operate.

Instead of a left-wing back, we could see Xhaka dropping deep as he did in each of his side’s last two matches, while Arsenal only play with two central defenders instead of three. This would give Tierney the opportunity to attack and create an overload against Wan-Bissaka. Another benefit to that system would be Ceballos’ inclusion on the right of midfield. He would be able to cover for Bellerin when his compatriot pushes forward, and also help hinder United’s main threats in the same channel when the hosts have possession.

As for the front three? Since the visitors cannot rely on crosses and forwards that come inside are crucial, Pépé makes sense; arguably the Ivorian's best performance in an Arsenal shirt came when these teams last met. However, Saka and Willian can also fulfil that role and offer Arteta more options should he wish to change his system during play.

At centre forward, Nketiah’s willingness to press is unlikely to appeal. United are not wedded to the style of playing out from back and would be happy to play balls long to Rashford and Greenwood. Lacazette is better suited to play with his back to goal, but Aubameyang is the obvious option after his and the Frenchman’s coinciding dry spells.

This system allows the wide forwards to cut inside as both are comfortable in central areas, or drive to the touchline and cross with their stronger respective feet. Meanwhile, the full backs have space to overlap. It also means that Partey or Ceballos can move further forward while the other covers and Xhaka forms part of a defensive trio (Fig. 6 & 7).

Fig. 6: When attacking (left to right), Saka (7) and Willian (12) have the ability to run into the channels or drop inside to link up with Aubameyang (14). Bellerin (2) can overlap or come inside should Willian stick to the wing. Meanwhile Xhaka (34) can drop back if needed for added cover.

Fig. 7: Arsenal drop into a 5-4-1 formation when defending. Mustafi (20), Ceballos (8), Partey (18) and Gabriel (6) aim to cut off any passes on United's left, while Saka (7) comes inside to cover. Willian (12) can drop back too and Aubameyang (14) is ready to spring into action when his side regain possession.

The formation plays to Arsenal’s strengths and manages to put their key players in their preferred positions. Whilst many would label it as conservative, they are facing a United side that have scored 11 goals in their last four outings and such an approach would surely give them a better chance of ending their winless run in Manchester.