Liverpool's dip in form allows Manchester clubs into Premier League title race

Have Liverpool fans forgiven Jordan Pickford yet? It seems unlikely. He plays for Everton, after all; it was already an uphill struggle for the England goalkeeper even before he recklessly charged into Virgil Van Dijk eleven weeks ago. Many thought that the Dutchman’s subsequent absence would hand his side’s challengers a boost in the Premier League title race and, although the Reds sit top as we enter 2021, they do not have one hand on the trophy as they did 12 months ago.

Defeat at Southampton on Monday night means that the Reds have failed to win in three consecutive league matches for the first time since May 2018; during that period their focus was, understandably, on the Champions League semi-final tie with AS Roma.

Almost every side in the division has gone through a rough patch at some stage, but Liverpool’s has coincided with a turn in form for two of their biggest rivals. Having played a game more, Jürgen Klopp’s men are level on points with Manchester United. The knives were out for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and his side in early November after Arsenal condemned them to a third defeat in their opening six matches, but the Red Devils have responded. Eight wins from a possible ten have seen them move level with Liverpool on points, and with a rearranged fixture at Burnley still to come.

Meanwhile, neighbours Manchester City capped a fine Christmas period with a 3-1 win at Chelsea on Sunday. It also ended a run of poor results against the league’s best this season. Draws at Liverpool and Manchester United, along with defeats to Leicester and Tottenham, had led many to question their hunger to reclaim their crown after last season. They are now four points from top, with two more games to play than the reigning champions

Liverpool’s defence rocked? Not the case

Klopp has been quick to point out the obstacles his side (and others) face in this compacted campaign. The lack of rest time. The decision to return to three substitutions per game. However, despite the growing injury list in defence (at time of writing all of his three senior centre backs are out of action) he has not blamed his team’s inconsistencies on this.

This is most likely because the makeshift defence has not been as huge a problem as first feared. Fabinho proved earlier in the season that he could perform as well as a centre back as he could a midfielder, while the rotating cast alongside him have not looked out of place. Since Van Dijk left the field at Goodison Park, his side have conceded just nine goals in 12 (and a half) matches, at a rate of 0.78 goals per game. Last season their average was 0.87, the best in the league.

Only Manchester City (7.9) have allowed fewer shots per game all season(8.4). Arsenal and Leicester are the only sides to have committed fewer fouls on average, while the holders have not conceded a single goal from a counter attack. This is not a team in chaos, or one lacking defensive organisation.

At first glance the numbers in terms of attacking are not concerning either. Mohamed Salah leads the scoring charts with 13 goals. Klopp’s side have found the net 37 times, more than any other side and only five fewer than at the same stage last season (although seven did come against Crystal Palace last month). They average 15.4 shots per game, almost exactly the same as the 15.6 they managed across last term.

The somewhat obvious observation is that these shots are not of the same quality as we are used to from Klopp’s side. However, although a slightly higher proportion of their efforts this season have come from distance, the similarity with the statistics from 2019/20 are startling.

They play 10.8 key passes per game, compared to 12.1 in 2019/20. Nobody who watched the recent matches against West Brom, Newcastle and Southampton could claim that the champions were not pushing to find the net. Unfortunately, the number of clear-cut chances were few and far between.

Last season’s creator-in-chief, Trent Alexander-Arnold, has contributed two assists this season; by the same stage last season he had six. Much has been made of the fact that he was guilty of losing possession 38 times against Southampton – a season-high. Nonetheless, his crossing accuracy rate is actually higher this season than in the last, both in open play (31.6% to 21.2%) and from corners (54.1% to 47.5% - all the more impressive given that he has not been able to find Van Dijk or Joel Matip as often).

These figures also give us an indication of what has changed. Although the quality of his crosses has improved, the quantity has dropped markedly, from 10.1 per game in 2019/20 to 5.3 here. He has also taken fewer corners (4.3 in comparison to 2.5 on average). Simply put, fewer balls into the box equals fewer chances.

Liverpool’s midfielders, rarely the playmakers in Klopp’s system, now have added pressure to fill the void left by Fabinho; against the Saints and Newcastle they managed five key passes between them. As such, contributions from Alexander-Arnold are even more important, but they are not arriving.

What might define Premier League title race?

Liverpool will do well to improve on their home form. Unbeaten in the league at Anfield since April 2017, they have won 32 of their last 34 home games in the competition. They are still to welcome both sides of Manchester to their corner of north-west England, two matches which could determine the destination of the title.

Their away record leaves more to be desired. Liverpool have dropped points in seven of their nine away games to date this season, more than they did home or away in the entirely of their title-winning campaign. The stalemate at St. James’ Park last week was the first time they had failed to score since July 2nd, but three of their four previous games on the road had seen them score just once. All ended in a 1-1 draw.

Again, stats do not paint a full picture, but here they do offer some idea of the problem’s roots. Away from home they record 13.8 shots per game compared to 17.3 at home, while on average they play 9.2 key passes as opposed to 12.6 at Anfield. They must start carving out opportunities and test the goalkeeper as often as they do on home turf. Managing the front three and keeping them fit, particularly while Diogo Jota remains on the sidelines, will be crucial. So will Alexander-Arnold delivering more crosses; as he has proven, the chances he creates from his passes more than make up for the occasions in which he cedes possession.

As for United, all hopes rest on Bruno Fernandes. The significance of his arrival from Sporting last January is comparable with Van Dijk’s mid-season arrival on Merseyside two years previous; while the latter galvanised Klopp’s backline, the former has brought an attacking thrust to a midfield previously defined by defensive discipline.

The Red Devils’ record without the Portuguese since he joined speaks volumes. Because there isn’t one really. He has featured in every single one of United’s league games, starting all but one. And with good reason. His side did not lose any of their 14 league games last season following his transfer and, although that unbeaten run did not extend into the current campaign, his influence is undeniable with 19 goals and 14 assists. As mentioned, he has been omitted from the starting XI just once, On that occasion, the Red Devils trailed 1-0 at half time against West Ham and in truth could have fallen further behind before Fernandes’ introduction at the break. He reacted with an assist for Paul Pogba’s equaliser. United took 12 shots as opposed to three in the first half and managed 12 touches in the Irons’ box, another big increase on the three they managed in the opening 45 minutes.

On this evidence it seems that his side cannot fare without him. Given that injuries and fatigue are commonplace during a congested fixture schedule, not to mention the possibility of Covid contraction, this is a worry. Donny van de Beek has only made two starts since he joined from Ajax, and in Fernandes’ absence he and the inconsistent Pogba would need to step up.

Across Manchester, this is not the same City side to which we have become accustomed in recent years. They have netted just 24 goals in their opening 15 games (in contrast, last season saw them score 43 times by this point, whilst in 2018/19 and 2017/18 their tallies were 45 and 46 respectively). Nonetheless, they boast the division’s meanest defence; indeed, Callum Hudson-Odoi’s consolation goal on Sunday was just the second they had conceded in seven matches. They are now four points from the summit, with two games in hand.

They have the benefit of a large squad prepared to deal with the remainder of the season. Victory over Chelsea was all the more remarkable given it came without Ederson, Kyle Walker, Aymeric Laporte, Gabriel Jesus or Ferran Torres; Sergio Agüero, Riyad Mahrez and Fernandinho were all late substitutions.

Should they continue to keep the opposition at bay, then Agüero’s return from injury should lead to more goals. He has played just 141 minutes all season, which goes some way to explaining City’s unusually low tally. On average Guardiola’s side manage 15.6 shots per game (a figure bettered only by Aston Villa); the prospect of their all-time top scorer unleashing some of those efforts changes the game. Having won 18 of their final 19 games in 2018/19 to leapfrog Liverpool and lift the trophy, Guardiola’s men have already shown that they have what it takes.

Inconsistency plagues contenders

Of course, given what has occurred so far this season, there promises to be more (cliché coming up) twists and turns in the Premier League title race.

After all, it was Liverpool’s neighbours Everton who started the season strongly. An injury to James Rodríguez, combined with Richarlison’s suspension, led to a run of four defeats in five games and ended any hopes, albeit slim, of bringing the trophy across Stanley Park. Having lost to Carlo Ancelotti’s side on the opening weekend, Tottenham announced themselves in the Premier League title race with a 6-1 win against Manchester United. Back-to-back defeats against Liverpool and Leicester halted their progress, while sitting one a 1-0 lead against Crystal Palace and Wolves saw them drop points in both instances. After Roman Saiss’ equaliser at Molineux, Jose Mourinho implied that this was not his strategy but rather his players’ failure to follow instructions. A clear case of Son Heung-Min, Harry Kane, Stephen Bergwijn, Sergio Reguilón and Matt Doherty all surrendering to their natural defensive instincts, then.

Mourinho’s men sit only four points behind Liverpool and United, level with City, and could yet re-join the party. One can’t help but feel as though Kane and Son, who have netted 22 of Spurs’ 29 goals so far, will define their season.

Can any of these sides find the consistency required to pull away from the pack?

Stats via WhoScored and Transfermarkt.